Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

Why Insight?

Members research

Flagship reports
  • ADP: Reducing GMR Airports valuation mainly on regulation
    13 Jul 2020

    We reduce our valuation of ADP’s acquisition of 49% of GMR Airports in India to only €279m as our new SOTP with DCF.s for Delhi Airport and Hyderabad Airport reflects low aeronautical tariffs, adverse regulation, high capex, high leverage and a high COC. We lower our Paris traffic due to a prolonged impact of Covid-19. We reduce our TP by €2 to €229.
  • Getlink: More positive on new hi-speed routes, TP up to €27.6
    17 Feb 2020

    We are more positive on new hi-speed rail routes given the Eurostar-Thalys merger proposed in Sept 2019, direct Amsterdam-London Eurostar services from 30 April 2020 and UK government approval for HS2. We forecast passengers from new routes to increase from 0.58m in 2019 to 9.1m in 2032E, driven by London-Amsterdam and the launch of Frankfurt/ Cologne, Geneva and Birmingham to Europe with HS2, now fully included in our TP, we raise to €27.6.
  • Ferrovial: Willingness to Pay suggests 407 tolls could rise 2-3x
    30 Jan 2020

    407-ETR’s new tolls for 2020 have greater segmentation and focus on yield. Our Willingness to Pay analysis suggests tolls could rise up to 2-3x, if LV.s pay tolls to save an hour (Cost of Time Saving) up to their Value of Time (hourly household income). We raise our 407- ETR av. toll increases from 8% pa to 10% pa in 2020-25E based on our heatmap of time savings.
Latest reports
  • Vopak: H1: Reducing EBITDA, EPS and TP to €41
    04 Aug 2020

    Vopak has reported H1 2020 EBITDA ex-exceptionals IFRS 16 of €403m, -5% YOY, 5% below Insight. We reduce our EBITDA, EPS, DPS and TP to €41. In our view, the results were moderately disappointing as EBITDA fell despite higher occupancy rates.
  • GAP: H1: Reducing traffic but raising efficiencies, TP MX$192
    04 Aug 2020

    GAP reported H1 EBITDA of MX$2,961m, 4% above Insight MX$2,858m. Covid-19 is accelerating in Mexico and we further reduce our traffic in 2020-22E, however cost efficiencies and Montego Bay beat in Q2, thus we raise our EBITDA. We reduce our TP MX$1 to MX$192.
  • Vinci: H1: Raising EBITDA and TP to €119 on higher Autoroutes traffic
    01 Aug 2020

    Vinci reported H1 EBIT of €267m, -64% below Insight €736m. However, we raise our EBITDA on higher Autoroutes traffic, in July almost back at 2019 levels, although we reduce Airports traffic and EBITDA, it was only 18% of 2019 EBITDA. We raise our TP €1 to €119 as our higher Autoroutes valuation more than offsets our lower Airports and Contracting valuations.
  • Ferrovial: H1: Raising Texas ML EBITDA and valuation, TP up to €54
    31 Jul 2020

    Ferrovial has reported H1 proportional EBITDA of €294m, -52% YOY (but only €48m in Q2), in line with Insight. We raise Texas ML EBITDA on better tolls/ transaction and improving traffic recovery into Q3, particularly at NTE-35W and NTE, with higher toll truck traffic notably resilient. We raise our ML valuation back to our pre-covid-19 level of €14.0bn and TP to €54.
  • Aena: H1: Proven cost cutting ability in Q2, TP resilient at €272
    30 Jul 2020

    We est. H1 “clean” EBITDA (ex. impairments and MAG.s in the Spanish State of Alarm in Q2) of €135m, -89% YOY, disappointing to us. We reduce EBITDA on lower traffic and less cost savings than we previously expected. However, Aena proved its ability to cut “Other opex” in Q2, setting it aside from other European govt owned airports. We reduce our TP €2 to €272.
  • ADP: H1: Weak efficiency, no EBITDA but TP resilient at €219
    28 Jul 2020

    ADP has reported H1 EBITDA of €39m, -95% YOY, far below Insight €177m. We reduce EBITDA to almost zero in 2020E on much lower cost savings but our TP only €12 to €219 as we expect a gradual recovery to 2019 traffic levels by 2025E with limited impact on our IRR.
  • ASUR: H1: Reducing traffic, EBITDA and TP to MX$299
    27 Jul 2020

    ASUR reported H1 EBITDA of MX$2,795m, -48% YOY, 3% below Insight. Covid-19 is accelerating in Mexico, thus we reduce traffic, EBITDA and our TP -3% to MX$299, with further lost EBITDA growth from ASUR’s relatively limited Mexican concession life until 2048.
  • Aleatica: H1: Reducing traffic and EBITDA but raising TP to MX$54
    27 Jul 2020

    We reduce our traffic due to a worsening of Covid-19 in Mexico, although our toll EBITDA is part protected by high margins and CPI+ tolls, and DPS but we raise our TP to MX$54 due to lower bond yields/ COC and a higher valuation of the guaranteed IRR.s on 5 toll roads.
  • Getlink: H1: More positive on Shuttles, raising EBITDA and TP to €25.6
    24 Jul 2020

    Getlink has reported H1 2020 EBITDA of €120m, -52% YOY (restated forex), 27% below Insight. However, given recent trends we are more positive on Shuttle traffic and prices, and we expect UK driving holidays to France to be popular. We raise our EBITDA and TP to €25.6, the later also benefiting from our lower COC due to the fall in French and UK bond yields.
  • OMA: H1: Reducing traffic, lower proposed MDP capex in 2021-25
    24 Jul 2020

    OMA has reported H1 EBITDA (ex. mainten. prov.) of MX$1,265m, -53% YOY, in line with Insight. OMA has submitted a lower capex proposal for its MDP in 2021-25 but with a value accretive Allowed Reg. Return level. We reduce our traffic, EBITDA, EPS, DPS and TP to MX$108, with our TP also negatively impacted by less value accretive expansionary capex.
  • Cellnex: H1 2020: Raising TP to €69 on higher growth, maintain SELL
    22 Jul 2020

    Cellnex has reported H1 adj. EBITDA of €527m, +64% YOY, 5% above Insight. Cash EBITDA of €359m (incl. cash lease payments) grew +61%. We raise our EBITDA on higher telecom revenue growth, both organic and acquisitive and higher margins and our TP to €69. Today Cellnex launched a large €4bn rights issue to fund its increasing acquisition pipeline.
  • ENAV: RP3 derogation lowers regulatory protection in 2020-24
    17 Jul 2020

    On 13 July the European Commission proposed to revise performance targets for Regulatory Period 3 (RP3) in 2020-24. The Balance ENAV will generate in 2020-21 for underperformance vs historic traffic forecasts will now be partially offset by cost savings, with revised forecasts for 2022-24, reducing traffic protection. Our TP falls -6% to €7.3.

Why Insight? 

We understand our clients needs, produce research product to achieve them, do what we say we will do, have fun and play to win. 

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Our approach

A niche non traditional sector requires a specialist solution. We concentrate on thoughtful, thorough, insightful analysis not maintenance research and challenge market views. 

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