Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

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Members research

Flagship reports
  • Getlink: More positive on new hi-speed routes, TP up to €27.6
    17 Feb 2020

    We are more positive on new hi-speed rail routes given the Eurostar-Thalys merger proposed in Sept 2019, direct Amsterdam-London Eurostar services from 30 April 2020 and UK government approval for HS2. We forecast passengers from new routes to increase from 0.58m in 2019 to 9.1m in 2032E, driven by London-Amsterdam and the launch of Frankfurt/ Cologne, Geneva and Birmingham to Europe with HS2, now fully included in our TP, we raise to €27.6.
  • Ferrovial: Willingness to Pay suggests 407 tolls could rise 2-3x
    30 Jan 2020

    407-ETR’s new tolls for 2020 have greater segmentation and focus on yield. Our Willingness to Pay analysis suggests tolls could rise up to 2-3x, if LV.s pay tolls to save an hour (Cost of Time Saving) up to their Value of Time (hourly household income). We raise our 407- ETR av. toll increases from 8% pa to 10% pa in 2020-25E based on our heatmap of time savings.
  • PINFRA: Highest quality EM toll road in our global universe
    15 Nov 2019

    PINFRA generates high FCF from quality, long duration, well diversified assets, 39% covered by globally unique IRR guarantees. We believe the shares over discount weak disclosure and uncertainty over capital allocation, notably its net cash, which should either be distributed as per our model or invested in new projects, likely value accretive to our SOTP.
Latest reports
  • Vinci: Lower traffic and higher equity injection estimated for Gatwick
    30 Jun 2020

    We reduce our LGW traffic and EBITDA due to Covid-19. Our forecasts indicate without remedial action, both ICR Default at Dec 20E and RAR Default at Dec 21E and 22E. We expect LGW to propose a package to bondholders in August, incl. interest step ups and new shareholder equity of £750m (previously £600m). Vinci may provide additional equity, above its share, to raise its shareholding in LGW and allocate more capital to airports.
  • Aena: Capex delays allow Aero returns to equal WACC in 2022E
    24 Jun 2020

    We expect Aena’s traffic to recover quicker from Covid-19 than many peers given 87% was continental in 19, which we est. will recover faster than intercontinental. Our delayed capacity expansion at Barcelona and Madrid, despite tariff declines in DORA II, allows our Aero returns to meet our WACC in 22E. We reduce near term EBITDA but our TP is resilient at €274.
  • Atlantia: Share price assumes ASPI revocation under Milleproroghe
    23 Jun 2020

    We est. ATL’s share price assumes ASPI agrees to the Milleproroghe Decree and new tariff system, then its concession is terminated with minimal compensation. If the govt does not change its stance we expect ASPI to start proceedings with the EU. Given weekly traffic YTD, we raise Italy motorway traffic and EBITDA (first time since Covid-19) and our TP 3% to €33.
  • Ferrovial: Incorporating bondholder consent package at LHR
    18 Jun 2020

    We reduce our Heathrow distributions due to weaker traffic caused by Covid-19 and the proposals to bondholders at Heathrow Finance Ltd, which if approved we would consider overall favourable to equity holders, a “textbook’ waiver to a forecast default, albeit due to a once a century event. We reduce our Heathrow valuation by €0.35bn and our TP falls to €52.
  • Flughafen Zurich: Further reducing traffic on Covid-19 but TP resilient at CHF210
    06 Jun 2020

    Due to a worsening impact of Covid-19 on global aviation, we further reduce traffic and EBITDA and we est. recovery of lost traffic in 23E, a year later than previously. However, our TP is almost unchanged at CHF210. FHZ is a key strategic Swiss infrastructure asset.
  • ASUR: Covid-19: Reducing traffic, EBITDA, DPS and TP to MX$300
    02 Jun 2020

    We further our reduce traffic in 2020-22E (not recovered until 23E), EBITDA and DPS. We model a re-opening of the MDP 2019-23, with lower capex, so returns recover quicker but given 3 years of lost traffic growth, less value accretive capex is needed over ASUR’s concession life until 2048, which combined with lower traffic, reduces our TP -2% to MX$300.
  • BCIA: Further reducing traffic on Covid-19 but TP resilient at HK$12.2
    01 Jun 2020

    Due to a worsening impact of Covid-19 on global aviation we reduce our near term traffic, and EBITDA. We est. lost traffic due to Cvoid-19 will be recovered by 23E (a year later than previously) and that lost to Daxing Airport will be gradually recovered with an improving mix from more international traffic. We reduce our TP -1% to HK$12.2 but our upside is a high 149%.
  • Global Toll Roads: Covid-19 a bump in the road. Defensive, solid FCF growth to resume
    31 May 2020

    Global toll road traffic has suffered an unprecedented shock from the Covid-19 pandemic, mainly due to government restrictions on movement of people, the magnitude of which in the last 120 years has only occurred during World War 2. Our key indicators suggest traffic is rapidly recovering, which we expect to lead to resumption of strong FCF and dividend growth.
  • Auckland: Lower traffic and equity issue, offset by lower bond yields
    27 May 2020

    Given a worse impact on global aviation from Covid-19 since we last published on 1 April, we reduce traffic and EBITDA, with lost traffic not recovered until June 24E (a year later than previously). We maintain our TP at NZ$10.9, with AIA’s equity raising (that we did not consider necessary at such a low share price) in April, offset by lower bond yields/ COC.
  • Eiffage: Reducing EBITDA in 20E on Covid-19 but TP rises to €135
    21 May 2020

    Covid-19 has deteriorated since we published on 28 March. We reduce our EBIT, EPS and DPS in 20E, but still expect Contracting and Concessions EBIT to recover by 22E. We raise our TP to €135 due to a higher peer group Contracting EV/ EBITDA multiple.
  • ENAV: Further reducing traffic but EBITDA and TP resilient on regulation
    20 May 2020

    We further reduce our traffic in 20E and 21E on Covid-19 but protection from the Balance mechanism for most traffic declines, largely protects our near term P&L EBITDA and higher tariffs to offset the Balance protects our cash flow from 23E, albeit with a delay.
  • GAP: Reducing traffic and less accretive MDP capex, TP MX$188
    19 May 2020

    We further our reduce traffic in 2020-22E (not recovered until 23E), EBITDA and DPS. We model a re-opening of the MDP 2020-24, with lower capex, so returns recover quicker but given 3 years of lost traffic growth, less value accretive capex is needed over GAP’s concession life until 2048, which combined with lower traffic, reduces our TP to MX$188.

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