Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

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Members research

Flagship reports
  • Getlink: More positive on new hi-speed routes, TP up to €27.6
    17 Feb 2020

    We are more positive on new hi-speed rail routes given the Eurostar-Thalys merger proposed in Sept 2019, direct Amsterdam-London Eurostar services from 30 April 2020 and UK government approval for HS2. We forecast passengers from new routes to increase from 0.58m in 2019 to 9.1m in 2032E, driven by London-Amsterdam and the launch of Frankfurt/ Cologne, Geneva and Birmingham to Europe with HS2, now fully included in our TP, we raise to €27.6.
  • Ferrovial: Willingness to Pay suggests 407 tolls could rise 2-3x
    30 Jan 2020

    407-ETR’s new tolls for 2020 have greater segmentation and focus on yield. Our Willingness to Pay analysis suggests tolls could rise up to 2-3x, if LV.s pay tolls to save an hour (Cost of Time Saving) up to their Value of Time (hourly household income). We raise our 407- ETR av. toll increases from 8% pa to 10% pa in 2020-25E based on our heatmap of time savings.
  • PINFRA: Highest quality EM toll road in our global universe
    15 Nov 2019

    PINFRA generates high FCF from quality, long duration, well diversified assets, 39% covered by globally unique IRR guarantees. We believe the shares over discount weak disclosure and uncertainty over capital allocation, notably its net cash, which should either be distributed as per our model or invested in new projects, likely value accretive to our SOTP.
Latest reports
  • ASUR: Covid-19: Reducing traffic, EBITDA, DPS and TP to MX$300
    02 Jun 2020

    We further our reduce traffic in 2020-22E (not recovered until 23E), EBITDA and DPS. We model a re-opening of the MDP 2019-23, with lower capex, so returns recover quicker but given 3 years of lost traffic growth, less value accretive capex is needed over ASUR’s concession life until 2048, which combined with lower traffic, reduces our TP -2% to MX$300.
  • BCIA: Further reducing traffic on Covid-19 but TP resilient at HK$12.2
    01 Jun 2020

    Due to a worsening impact of Covid-19 on global aviation we reduce our near term traffic, and EBITDA. We est. lost traffic due to Cvoid-19 will be recovered by 23E (a year later than previously) and that lost to Daxing Airport will be gradually recovered with an improving mix from more international traffic. We reduce our TP -1% to HK$12.2 but our upside is a high 149%.
  • Global Toll Roads: Covid-19 a bump in the road. Defensive, solid FCF growth to resume
    31 May 2020

    Global toll road traffic has suffered an unprecedented shock from the Covid-19 pandemic, mainly due to government restrictions on movement of people, the magnitude of which in the last 120 years has only occurred during World War 2. Our key indicators suggest traffic is rapidly recovering, which we expect to lead to resumption of strong FCF and dividend growth.
  • Auckland: Lower traffic and equity issue, offset by lower bond yields
    27 May 2020

    Given a worse impact on global aviation from Covid-19 since we last published on 1 April, we reduce traffic and EBITDA, with lost traffic not recovered until June 24E (a year later than previously). We maintain our TP at NZ$10.9, with AIA’s equity raising (that we did not consider necessary at such a low share price) in April, offset by lower bond yields/ COC.
  • Eiffage: Reducing EBITDA in 20E on Covid-19 but TP rises to €135
    21 May 2020

    Covid-19 has deteriorated since we published on 28 March. We reduce our EBIT, EPS and DPS in 20E, but still expect Contracting and Concessions EBIT to recover by 22E. We raise our TP to €135 due to a higher peer group Contracting EV/ EBITDA multiple.
  • ENAV: Further reducing traffic but EBITDA and TP resilient on regulation
    20 May 2020

    We further reduce our traffic in 20E and 21E on Covid-19 but protection from the Balance mechanism for most traffic declines, largely protects our near term P&L EBITDA and higher tariffs to offset the Balance protects our cash flow from 23E, albeit with a delay.
  • GAP: Reducing traffic and less accretive MDP capex, TP MX$188
    19 May 2020

    We further our reduce traffic in 2020-22E (not recovered until 23E), EBITDA and DPS. We model a re-opening of the MDP 2020-24, with lower capex, so returns recover quicker but given 3 years of lost traffic growth, less value accretive capex is needed over GAP’s concession life until 2048, which combined with lower traffic, reduces our TP to MX$188.
  • Fraport: Further reducing traffic and EBITDA but TP rises to €65
    12 May 2020

    We reduce Frankfurt traffic in 20-22E and we est. a slower ‘hockey stick’ shaped recovery with lost traffic not recovered until 23E. We reduce near term EBITDA, EPS and DPS but raise our TP to €65, mainly our International valuation increasing due to falling sovereign bond yields.
  • Vinci: Revised Base Case indicates Gatwick will require new equity
    10 May 2020

    Having fully reviewed Gatwick’s bond documentation, our Covid-19 impacted traffic Base Case indicates, without remedial action, an ICR and RAR Trigger Event at Dec 20E and an RAR Default at Dec 21E and Dec 22E. Thus, we expect new shareholder equity to be injected into LGW in Q4 20E, which we est. at c£600m, with €345m for Vinci comfortably financeable.
  • OMA: Further reducing traffic/ EBITDA in 20E, TP falls to MX$106
    06 May 2020

    We reduce our traffic to -50% in 20E and cut EBITDA, EPS and DPS. We expect a prolonged ‘hockey stick’ shaped traffic recovery in 2021-23E, thus our TP falls to MX$106 due to further lost EBITDA growth from a 28 YR remaining concession to 2048. We remain SELL.
  • Vinci: Reducing Airports traffic on Covid-19, TP cut to €112
    05 May 2020

    Since we last published 6 weeks ago Covid-19 has significantly worsened. We reduce our traffic and EBITDA, mostly in Airports but we maintain our halving of Contracting EBIT in 20E. We reduce our TP to €112, mainly due to a lower Airports valuation.
  • Ferrovial: Reducing Heathrow traffic and valuation, TP still €54
    04 May 2020

    Following Heathrow Q1 results, we reduce traffic, EBITDA and distributions. Our Base Case is now a Trigger Event at Heathrow SP at end 20E but given our traffic recovery we est. reasonable headroom in 21E, we expect a small shareholder contribution into Heathrow Finance plc to cover interest. Although we reduce our Heathrow valuation our TP remains €54.

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