Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

Why Insight?

Members research

Flagship reports
  • Ferrovial: A roadmap for higher shareholder remuneration
    19 Jul 2019

    We expect after selling Services (est. proceeds €1.3bn in 2020E) Ferrovial will have sufficient capital to invest in new projects and raise shareholder remuneration. Our roadmap for shareholder remuneration includes a €1bn share buyback to raise exposure to 407-ETR and the ML.s and higher ongoing dividend growth backed by raised 407-ETR distributions.
  • Transurban: New DCF value accretion for Washington ML extensions
    03 Jul 2019

    Transurban has a strong record extending its existing concessions and the I-395 and I-95 Fredericksburg Extension will extend its successful Washington managed lane network. We expect reasonably priced time savings and our new DCF.s estimate attractive value accretion.
  • Ferrovial: New DCFs estimate value accretion for I-66 and I-77
    08 Jun 2019

    Given success of the NTE, LBJ and NTE-35W, the I-77 has partially opened and potential for more projects, we expect the market to increasingly focus on Ferrovial’s managed lanes (ML.s). Our new DCF.s estimate good value accretion for the I-66 and I-77. N. American toll roads with congestion pricing are 68% of EV in our SOTP, including the ML.s with 24pp.
Latest reports
  • ADP: Raising TP as French bond yields fall to historic lows
    10 Jul 2019

    We raise our TP by €7 to €292, mainly due to 10YR French bond yields falling to historic lows of -0.08%. Our TP indicates an all time high 85% upside, based on our fundamental SOTP valuation. We believe consensus is too focused on a lower probability of privatisation and insufficiently on ADP’s historically low COC. Our TP has never assumed privatisation.
  • Aena: Highly attractive IRR vs. historically low COC
    09 Jul 2019

    We re-iterate our Buy on Aena given its defensive FCF generating an IRR of 7.7%, well above our Ke of 5.0% as 10YR Spanish bond yields are close to historic lows at 0.37%. Our TP of €306 indicates 76% upside, an all time high. We believe consensus is too focused on sentiment from slowing traffic in 2019 and insufficiently focused on an historically low COC.
  • CCR: Raising TP to R$10.0 on Public transport DCF.s
    28 Jun 2019

    We consider CCR’s metro concessions in Public transport to be attractive given forecast strongly growing low volatility FCF, high returns, reasonable duration and potential for winning future new concessions. We raise our DCF valuations for ViaQuatro, MetroBahia and ViaMobilidade, which are now 37% of our SOTP and our TP increases to R$10.0.
  • Atlantia: Raising Telepass valuation to €1.5bn on new DCF
    24 Jun 2019

    Atlantia has indicated that it could sell a minority stake in Telepas but on 21 June it said it was not currently engaged in concrete negotiations. We expect Telepass to be part of Atlantia’s asset rotation strategy at least in the mid term. Our new DCF captures Telepass’ high FCF generation and growth prospects, our EV valuation increases from €0.86bn to €1.53bn.
  • Atlantia: Proposed new tariff system likely breaches EU law
    21 Jun 2019

    The Italian Transport Ministry has published a proposed framework for toll road tariffs based on an Allowed return and RAB. An exact legal precedent was set under EU law when the government tried to introduce a similar tariff scheme in 2006 but later had to agree bilaterally to the enhanced Single Concession Agreement signed in 2007, which can’t be unilaterally changed.
  • Flughafen Zurich: Final tariff parameters: Raising EBITDA & EPS, TP CHF285
    15 Jun 2019

    The Swiss Federal Council has made a final decision that the economic parameters for the Ordinance on Airport Charges (OAC) will not be adjusted, contrary to the Federal Office of Civil Aviation’s (FOCA) proposal. We reduce our Non-aero cross subsidy and lower our tariff cuts in 9/2020 and 9/2024E, thus we raise our EBITDA, EPS and TP to CHF285.
  • Cellnex: Adding value accretive 5G upgrade and Small Cell rollout
    10 Jun 2019

    We add 5G upgrade fees and 5G Small cell rollout to our forecasts. We believe the share price is still undervaluing growth in the passive telco infrastructure market from the massive increase in mobile data given the much needed densification of mobile networks and high sensitivity to the recent further fall in bond yields. We raise our SOTP based TP to €45.
  • Inwit: U/g to Buy on 5G and TIM-VOD partnership accretion
    03 Jun 2019

    We raise our stand alone Inwit valuation as we add 5G rollout fees and increase our Small cell forecasts. We add estimated revenue, cost and financial synergies from the likely passive network sharing partnership with Vodafone to our Blue Sky TP (€1.6bn, €2.6/ share), with an allocated 90% probability, to derive our TP of €12.8, thus we upgrade from Sell to Buy.
  • Aleatica: Dividend yield estimated to reach 10.3% in 2020E
    26 May 2019

    Aleatica tripled its 2018 dividend. We est. solid and growing FCF distributions from Aleatica’s concessions backed by strong EBITDA growth. We expect core shareholder IFM to focus on dividends and IRR maximisation. We significantly raise our short and long term DPS. Aleatica has the highest 2020E dividend yield of 10.3% in our global infrastructure sector.
  • ADP: Lower privatisation potential but fundamental TP €263
    13 May 2019

    On 10 May a French Constitutional Council ruled to allow a referendum on privatisation of ADP, in our view significantly reducing its probability. ADP’s share price subsequently fell 15%. We raise our TP to €263, based on our fundamental SOTP valuation, not a privatisation scenario. We increase ADP on our Stock Ranking System from 9th to 8th.
  • Cellnex: Transformational acquisitions, TP raised to €37
    09 May 2019

    Cellnex has reported Q1 2019 adj. EBITDA of €159m, +11% YOY, broadly in line with Insight €160m. Cellnex has agreed to 3 new transformational acquisitions to add up to 15k sites in its existing geographies to its 20.1k sites at end Q1. We raise our EBITDA estimates and our TP to €37 due to acquisitions, with our TP also increasing due to slightly lower bond yields.
  • Ferrovial: Q1: Higher managed lane prices outweigh Construction
    08 May 2019

    Ferrovial has reported Q1 2019 EBIT ex. impairments and disposals of -€263m (€62m in Q1 2018), below Insight €107m or ex. the €345m provision in Construction, EBIT was €82m. We raise our TP to €40 as we increase our Managed Lane tolls after a strong beat in Q1, which are a base for revenues to 2061E but we expect the Construction provision to be one off.

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A niche non traditional sector requires a specialist solution. We concentrate on thoughtful, thorough, insightful analysis not maintenance research and challenge market views. 

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