Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

Why Insight?

Members research

Flagship reports
  • Getlink: More positive on new hi-speed routes, TP up to €27.6
    17 Feb 2020

    We are more positive on new hi-speed rail routes given the Eurostar-Thalys merger proposed in Sept 2019, direct Amsterdam-London Eurostar services from 30 April 2020 and UK government approval for HS2. We forecast passengers from new routes to increase from 0.58m in 2019 to 9.1m in 2032E, driven by London-Amsterdam and the launch of Frankfurt/ Cologne, Geneva and Birmingham to Europe with HS2, now fully included in our TP, we raise to €27.6.
  • Ferrovial: Willingness to Pay suggests 407 tolls could rise 2-3x
    30 Jan 2020

    407-ETR’s new tolls for 2020 have greater segmentation and focus on yield. Our Willingness to Pay analysis suggests tolls could rise up to 2-3x, if LV.s pay tolls to save an hour (Cost of Time Saving) up to their Value of Time (hourly household income). We raise our 407- ETR av. toll increases from 8% pa to 10% pa in 2020-25E based on our heatmap of time savings.
  • PINFRA: Highest quality EM toll road in our global universe
    15 Nov 2019

    PINFRA generates high FCF from quality, long duration, well diversified assets, 39% covered by globally unique IRR guarantees. We believe the shares over discount weak disclosure and uncertainty over capital allocation, notably its net cash, which should either be distributed as per our model or invested in new projects, likely value accretive to our SOTP.
Latest reports
  • Vopak: FY19: Raising EBITDA, EPS & TP to €44 but remain SELL
    19 Feb 2020

    Vopak on 12 February reported FY19 Group EBITDA ex-exceptionals post IFRS 16 of €830m, +13% YOY, 2.5% below Insight or pre IFRS 16 €785m, +7%YOY. We raise our EBITDA, EPS and TP to €44 mainly on improving capacity utilisation but we remain SELL as we est. share price downside for Vopak of -12% but upside for our global infrastructure sector of 40%.
  • OMA: Raising EBITDA, EPS, capex & TP to MX$140 but remain SELL
    15 Feb 2020

    OMA has reported FY19 EBITDA (ex. maintenance prov.) of MX$5,563m, +18% YOY, 1.4% above Insight. We raise our EBITDA and EPS mainly on higher traffic and efficiency. We raise long term capex, compensatory tariffs and our est. Allowed Regulatory Return post GAP’s favourable MDP. We raise our TP to MX$140 but remain SELL.
  • ADP: Raise Paris but reduce International EBITDA, TP up to €288
    11 Feb 2020

    ADP has reported FY19 EBITDA of €1,772m, +5.5% YOY, in line with Insight. We raise our EBITDA for Paris, notably Aviation and Retail (86% of our SOTP) but reduce International. (4% of our SOTP). We trim our EPS but raise our TP to €288 on a higher Retail valuation.
  • Vinci: FY19: Raising EBIT, EPS and TP to €129 but remain SELL
    05 Feb 2020

    Vinci has reported FY19 EBIT of €5,734m (+14.8% YOY), 5% above Insight. We raise EBIT and EPS forecasts after Concessions beat on toll road traffic and Contracting on margins. We raise our TP to €129 and consider Vinci’s assets and management high quality but we remain a relative SELL given higher upside for our infrastructure universe of 40%.
  • GAP: Raising LT capex, TP up to MX$239 but remain SELL
    03 Feb 2020

    On 13 Dec, the Mexican Ministry of Communications & Transportation approved GAP’s MDP (Master Development Program) for 2020-24. Our model already included Aero Return on RAB above our WACC to 2048E, but we raise our long term capex and compensatory tariff increases in 2025-48E. Given a positive return spread and higher capex our TP increases to MX$239 (+2%) but we remain SELL given higher upside for our infra universe of 40%.
  • ADP: Slightly reducing near term traffic & EPS, TP resilient at €274
    20 Jan 2020

    We fine tune our forecasts ahead of FY19 results. We reduce slightly near-term Paris traffic but expect a continued positive mix with higher long-term intercontinental growth positive for retail revenues and valuation. We reduce our EPS forecasts, mainly due to higher depreciation (non cash) but our SOTP-based TP is unchanged at €274.
  • Eiffage: New Toulouse Airport DCF indicates value dilution
    10 Jan 2020

    Eiffage has acquired of 49.99% of Toulouse Airport for €507m. Our new DCF valuation indicates value dilution, although capturing further upside from international traffic growth and commercial improvement, it includes aeronautical tariff reductions given the fall in bond yields/ COC since 2013. We see significant regulatory uncertainty and downside risk.
  • Global Toll Roads: LT traffic forecasts, E-commerce benefit for HV.s
    05 Jan 2020

    We forecast traffic growth for HV.s to continue significantly above LV.s. In developed markets, we see growth in LV.s limited by congestion, deteriorating demographics, increasing popularity of home working and urbanisation but we expect HV.s to benefit from ongoing growth in consumer durables, fuelled by e-commerce and demand for faster deliveries.
  • Atlantia: Draft decree likely would breach concession contract
    24 Dec 2019

    The government appears to have changed direction and the press have reported the Italian cabinet has approved a draft decree aimed at making it easier to revoke motorway concessions and reduce compensation. We would not expect such a decree to be implemented, particularly as in our view, it would explicitly under Article 9, trigger termination of the concession, with no penalty for ASPI and for which we est. a compensation equity value for 88% of ASPI of €13.0bn.
  • ADP: Reducing Paris traffic but retail growth decent
    23 Dec 2019

    ADP’s airside retail sales per passenger has risen strongly in 2019 and we forecast further growth in 2020 and beyond, driven by moderate traffic growth and improved retail offering. Our TP falls -2% to €274, mainly due to slightly lowering Paris traffic growth in 2019E.
  • Eiffage: Confidence in further growth in 2020 but higher tax rate
    19 Dec 2019

    We met with management on 13 December, which confirmed confidence in our operating forecasts for profit and FCF growth in both Contracting and Concessions in 2020E. However, we reduce our EPS in 2019-20E due to a higher tax rate, a factor beyond management control but our TP, determined by long term FCF, only falls €2 to €152.
  • Atlantia: Likely nearing an ASPI solution, not discounted in shares
    17 Dec 2019

    We continue to believe revocation of ASPI highly unlikely. We consider it very positive the govt now appears to favour a negotiated solution as appear do the Benetton’s. Our ASPI “negotiated solution” scenario implies an equity value (for 88%) of €11.7bn, above our est. of the share price implied €8.2bn. We raise ATL from 2rd to 1st of 24 on our Stock Ranking System.

Why Insight? 

We understand our clients needs, produce research product to achieve them, do what we say we will do, have fun and play to win. 

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Our approach

A niche non traditional sector requires a specialist solution. We concentrate on thoughtful, thorough, insightful analysis not maintenance research and challenge market views. 

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