Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

Why Insight?

Members research

Flagship reports
  • Eiffage: Raising Energy Systems valuation, TP up to €143
    08 Dec 2020

    Energies is Eiffage’s most attractive Contracting activity, its profits have consistently grown since 2010, with organic growth accelerating in 2017-19, driven by increasing electrical content and automation. We see continued value creation but limited by fair value for Energies Systems at c.9.5x EV/EBIT and Contracting detracting from market value of Concessions.
  • Vinci: Energies: Organic growth, non-volatile profits and high FCF
    13 Oct 2020

    Energies is Vinci’s most attractive Contracting activity, organic growth accelerated in 2015-19 due to increasing electrical content, profits have been non-volatile and FCF impressive. We expect continued value creation but limited by our fair value for Energies businesses at EV/EBIT 8-11x and Contracting exposure tends to detract from market value of Concessions.
  • Ferrovial: 407-ETR: WFH to be offset by less public transport & e-commerce
    06 Sep 2020

    TomTom data shows congestion is returning to Toronto. We forecast 407-ETR traffic will continue to recover, returning to 2019 levels in 2021E. We expect increased WFH to be offset by less public transport and e-commerce growth. Our Willingness to Pay analysis based on pre-Covid-19 traffic and high est. Value of Time for LV.s and HV.s suggests tolls could over double.
Latest reports
  • Ferrovial: Highway 413 a limited negative if built, Highway 401 extension not a concern
    15 Jan 2021

    The Ontario govt has pressed ahead with plans for Highway 413, a 3rd beltway around Toronto. We are doubtful that it will be built, at least before mid-2030.s. We would see a limited impact as mostly it would not compete with 407-ETR that links the more important suburbs to central Toronto. We maintain Ferrovial as our no. 1 pick and our TP at €49.
  • Ferrovial: Heathrow prolonged traffic recovery over discounted by Ferrovial share price
    13 Jan 2021

    We expect Heathrow to be Ferrovial’s infrastructure asset with the longest recovery profile, with traffic in 2026E, EBITDA in 2023E and shareholder distributions resuming in 2024E. However, we consider this over discounted given minimal impact on lifetime FCF (owned to perpetuity) and some single till regulatory protection from 2022E. We maintain Ferrovial as our no. 1 pick and our TP at €49.
  • Getlink: Brexit concerns over discounted, Railways fixed charge protected by regulation
    13 Dec 2020

    Eurotunnel’s Fixed Charge from Eurostar is unique in our transportation infrastructure universe and along with resilient truck traffic means we expect Getlink to be decently FCF positive in 2020E. Our analysis of the Railway Usage Contract indicates the Fixed Charge is well protected by regulation. We raise our TP +€0.4 to €26.9.
  • Cellnex: U/g to BUY, TP up to €87 on CK Hutchison deal & BTS program
    30 Nov 2020

    We add value accretion from the transformational acquisition of CK Hutchison’s European towers and raise returns for Cellnex’s extensive Build to Suit (BTS) program. We raise our EBITDA, Recurring FCF and TP to €87, thus upgrade our rating from SELL to BUY. Our SOTP includes value accretion from acquisitions to date but not future potential acquisitions.
  • Inwit: Highly visible strong FCF growth driven by 5G, TP up to €20
    24 Nov 2020

    We add Inwit’s new Business Plan 2020-26 into our model, raising our Recurring FCF (pre-tax scheme) by 30-33% to average €402m in 2021-23E due to higher growth in tenants, driven by 5G, backed by visible commitments from Anchors, TIM + VOD. Given higher FCF, we raise DPS 20-23% in 2020-22E, our TP +€2.4 to €20.0 and Stock Ranking from 11th to 8th.
  • Atlantia: Resilient FCF in 2020E, recovery from 2021E onwards
    17 Nov 2020

    We forecast ATL will generate resilient FCF despite weaker Q4 and Q1 traffic, with rapid recovery when Covid-19 restrictions ease and the vaccine distributed. Thus, we raise our DPS, backed by resilient distributions into Atlantia SpA (most notably from Abertis’ new dividend policy). We do not see ASPI’s FCF further materially impacted from the dispute with the govt.
  • Fraport: Cost savings to be mostly eroded as traffic recovers
    12 Nov 2020

    We expect Fraport to achieve significant staff and non-staff cost savings in 2020-22E but for them to be mostly gradually eroded as traffic recovers. Although we reduce near-term traffic and EBITDA, mainly at Frankfurt, our TP rises €8 to €68, mainly on International activities.
  • Getlink: FCF still positive despite reducing traffic in Q4 and 2021E
    04 Nov 2020

    We reduce traffic for cars and Eurostar given a more prolonged Covid-19 impact, incl. lockdowns in France and UK. However, Getlink is well prepared having recently improved liquidity and we est. positive FCF due to resilience in trucks (essential freight supplies despite the pandemic) and the Eurostar fixed fee (unique in our universe). Our TP is resilient at €26.5.
  • Ferrovial: Adding structural shift in WFH into 407-ETR forecasts
    02 Nov 2020

    We reduce 407-ETR EBITDA as we forecast traffic by purpose of use, incorporating a structural ongoing loss of commuters from a shift to WFH. We est. lower toll increases until 407-ETR traffic of 2019 is mostly recovered in 2023E, when time savings enable higher toll increases. However, we still est. Infrastructure distributions will cover our dividend for 2020E.
  • Getlink: 9M: Reducing traffic but lower COC, raising TP to €26.3
    20 Oct 2020

    Getlink has reported 9M 2020 revenues of €622m, -25% YoY LFL, in line with Insight. We reduce average traffic in 20E due to quarantine restrictions since mid-Aug but mostly offset by raising shuttle prices/ yields. We raise our TP to €26.3 due to a lower COC from further falls in French and UK bond yields and Getlink rises to 7th pick of 24 on our ranking.
  • Flughafen Zurich: Higher regulatory certainty than peers in 2020-25E
    16 Oct 2020

    Given a regulatory extension in July, FHZ has more near term regulatory certainty than its peers to 2025, with lower capex and flat tariffs partly mitigating lower traffic and allowing an av. Regulated ROIC (ex. cross subsidy) > our WACC in 2021-25E. Although, we reduce near term traffic, EBITDA, EPS and DPS our TP is relatively resilient at -CHF10 to CHF226.
  • ADP: Lower traffic to be offset by higher efficiencies
    03 Oct 2020

    We reduce Paris traffic on a resurgence of Covid-19 but we expect an offset from ADP raising its opex efficiency target. According to the press and unions, ADP has presented a draft agreement for voluntary redundancies in Paris. We expect a prolonged recovery but we still see strong LT value accretion in retail. We raise our lifetime FCF based TP slightly to €228.

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A niche non traditional sector requires a specialist solution. We concentrate on thoughtful, thorough, insightful analysis not maintenance research and challenge market views. 

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