Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

Why Insight?

Members research

Flagship reports
  • PINFRA: Highest quality EM toll road in our global universe
    15 Nov 2019

    PINFRA generates high FCF from quality, long duration, well diversified assets, 39% covered by globally unique IRR guarantees. We believe the shares over discount weak disclosure and uncertainty over capital allocation, notably its net cash, which should either be distributed as per our model or invested in new projects, likely value accretive to our SOTP.
  • Ferrovial: A roadmap for higher shareholder remuneration
    19 Jul 2019

    We expect after selling Services (est. proceeds €1.3bn in 2020E) Ferrovial will have sufficient capital to invest in new projects and raise shareholder remuneration. Our roadmap for shareholder remuneration includes a €1bn share buyback to raise exposure to 407-ETR and the ML.s and higher ongoing dividend growth backed by raised 407-ETR distributions.
  • Transurban: New DCF value accretion for Washington ML extensions
    03 Jul 2019

    Transurban has a strong record extending its existing concessions and the I-395 and I-95 Fredericksburg Extension will extend its successful Washington managed lane network. We expect reasonably priced time savings and our new DCF.s estimate attractive value accretion.
Latest reports
  • ADP: Slightly reducing near term traffic & EPS, TP resilient at €274
    20 Jan 2020

    We fine tune our forecasts ahead of FY19 results. We reduce slightly near-term Paris traffic but expect a continued positive mix with higher long-term intercontinental growth positive for retail revenues and valuation. We reduce our EPS forecasts, mainly due to higher depreciation (non cash) but our SOTP-based TP is unchanged at €274.
  • Eiffage: New Toulouse Airport DCF indicates value dilution
    10 Jan 2020

    Eiffage has acquired of 49.99% of Toulouse Airport for €507m. Our new DCF valuation indicates value dilution, although capturing further upside from international traffic growth and commercial improvement, it includes aeronautical tariff reductions given the fall in bond yields/ COC since 2013. We see significant regulatory uncertainty and downside risk.
  • Global Toll Roads: LT traffic forecasts, E-commerce benefit for HV.s
    05 Jan 2020

    We forecast traffic growth for HV.s to continue significantly above LV.s. In developed markets, we see growth in LV.s limited by congestion, deteriorating demographics, increasing popularity of home working and urbanisation but we expect HV.s to benefit from ongoing growth in consumer durables, fuelled by e-commerce and demand for faster deliveries.
  • Atlantia: Draft decree likely would breach concession contract
    24 Dec 2019

    The government appears to have changed direction and the press have reported the Italian cabinet has approved a draft decree aimed at making it easier to revoke motorway concessions and reduce compensation. We would not expect such a decree to be implemented, particularly as in our view, it would explicitly under Article 9, trigger termination of the concession, with no penalty for ASPI and for which we est. a compensation equity value for 88% of ASPI of €13.0bn.
  • ADP: Reducing Paris traffic but retail growth decent
    23 Dec 2019

    ADP’s airside retail sales per passenger has risen strongly in 2019 and we forecast further growth in 2020 and beyond, driven by moderate traffic growth and improved retail offering. Our TP falls -2% to €274, mainly due to slightly lowering Paris traffic growth in 2019E.
  • Eiffage: Confidence in further growth in 2020 but higher tax rate
    19 Dec 2019

    We met with management on 13 December, which confirmed confidence in our operating forecasts for profit and FCF growth in both Contracting and Concessions in 2020E. However, we reduce our EPS in 2019-20E due to a higher tax rate, a factor beyond management control but our TP, determined by long term FCF, only falls €2 to €152.
  • Atlantia: Likely nearing an ASPI solution, not discounted in shares
    17 Dec 2019

    We continue to believe revocation of ASPI highly unlikely. We consider it very positive the govt now appears to favour a negotiated solution as appear do the Benetton’s. Our ASPI “negotiated solution” scenario implies an equity value (for 88%) of €11.7bn, above our est. of the share price implied €8.2bn. We raise ATL from 2rd to 1st of 24 on our Stock Ranking System.
  • Ferrovial: NTE refinancing indicates distributions should beat
    15 Dec 2019

    NTE is refinancing all of its debt. On 10 Dec NTE issued a prospectus for its new Series 2019 senior bonds, which have now been placed at an av. yield of 3.47%. This substantiates our positive thesis that Ferrovial’s Texas Managed Lanes will continue to outperform on financing costs, toll revenues (strong pricing and traffic) and distributions.
  • GAP: New Development Program, tariffs beat, TP up to MX$230
    14 Dec 2019

    On 13 December the Mexican Ministry of Communications & Transportation approved GAP’s MDP (Master Development Program) for 2020-24, with higher capex but much higher tariff increases than we forecast, allowing a high Aeronautical ROIC vs our Insight WACC. We raise our TP to MX$230 but remain SELL given higher upside for our infra universe of 41%.
  • Atlantia: ASPI termination unlikely, share price discounting worse
    03 Dec 2019

    Heightened political tensions have led to ATL’s share price falling -14% in the last month and assuming undervaluation across assets it is 41% below our ASPI Termination Scenario TP of €33. We continue to consider ASPI termination highly unlikely as no serious breach has been ascertained, we est. compensation to equity and bond holders of €21.5bn and funding of desperately needed future improvements to Italian infrastructure would become much more difficult. We raise ATL from 3rd to 2nd of 24 on our Stock Ranking System.
  • Flughafen Zurich: Noida Airport investment seems too risky
    29 Nov 2019

    FHZ has been elected Selected Bidder for a 40-year concession to design, develop and operate the new Noida International airport at Jewar near Delhi in India. Our initial view is that Noida Airport is too risky as it is a large, greenfield investment with construction risk, travel connectivity with Delhi seems difficult and Delhi International Airport appears competitive.
  • Getlink: New JV to enter regional rail as an operator
    25 Nov 2019

    Getlink has signed an JV agreement with RATP (operator of the Paris metro) to enable entry into the regional rail market in France. Although not likely to involve high capex, we view expansion of Getlink’s non infrastructure rail operator business negatively due to the risk of higher cash flow volatility. We raise our TP to €23.0 due to higher shuttle traffic in 19E.

Why Insight? 

We understand our clients needs, produce research product to achieve them, do what we say we will do, have fun and play to win. 

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Our approach

A niche non traditional sector requires a specialist solution. We concentrate on thoughtful, thorough, insightful analysis not maintenance research and challenge market views. 

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