Insight Investment Research LLP

Insight Investment Research is a top ranked sell side boutique dedicated to Global Infrastructure equity research. We leverage extensive equity research experience, industry knowledge and strong corporate relationships to produce differentiated independent research and provide new insights on infrastructure stocks (toll roads, airports, telecom towers) and the industry to global institutional investors.

We provide clients with timely, concise and in depth reports based on detailed company and industry models. Coverage includes twenty five stocks across the Infrastructure sector across Europe, South America and Asia Pacific. We are expanding our integrated global coverage in a sector almost exclusively covered by regional analysts.

Why Insight?

Members research

Flagship reports
  • Ferrovial: 407-ETR: WFH to be offset by less public transport & e-commerce
    06 Sep 2020

    TomTom data shows congestion is returning to Toronto. We forecast 407-ETR traffic will continue to recover, returning to 2019 levels in 2021E. We expect increased WFH to be offset by less public transport and e-commerce growth. Our Willingness to Pay analysis based on pre-Covid-19 traffic and high est. Value of Time for LV.s and HV.s suggests tolls could over double.
  • ADP: Reducing GMR Airports valuation mainly on regulation
    13 Jul 2020

    We reduce our valuation of ADP’s acquisition of 49% of GMR Airports in India to only €279m as our new SOTP with DCF.s for Delhi Airport and Hyderabad Airport reflects low aeronautical tariffs, adverse regulation, high capex, high leverage and a high COC. We lower our Paris traffic due to a prolonged impact of Covid-19. We reduce our TP by €2 to €229.
  • Getlink: More positive on new hi-speed routes, TP up to €27.6
    17 Feb 2020

    We are more positive on new hi-speed rail routes given the Eurostar-Thalys merger proposed in Sept 2019, direct Amsterdam-London Eurostar services from 30 April 2020 and UK government approval for HS2. We forecast passengers from new routes to increase from 0.58m in 2019 to 9.1m in 2032E, driven by London-Amsterdam and the launch of Frankfurt/ Cologne, Geneva and Birmingham to Europe with HS2, now fully included in our TP, we raise to €27.6.
Latest reports
  • Atlantia: Splitting up is never easy and sometimes too difficult
    28 Sep 2020

    We do not expect CDP will offer to buy ASPI at a reasonable price and terms or for the govt to provide the conditions required for a listing of ASPI. However, we raise ASPI from Poor to Strong on our Asset Quality Ranking as we believe ATL is astutely defending its interests by providing a market based transparent framework to sell its 88.1% shareholding in ASPI.
  • Aena: Discounting MAG.s but lifetime IRR 9.2% and TP €271
    22 Sep 2020

    We fine tune traffic for a better July-Aug but worse Q4. We raise EBITDA margins slightly as our unit costs analysis suggests scope for better efficiency in H2 but we apply discounts to Commercial MAG.s to share “pain” with retailers. However, Aena should have more MAG protection than most global airport peers and FCF is mostly restored when traffic is recovered in 25E, thus our lifetime IRR of 9.2% and TP is resilient at +€6 to €271.
  • Managed Lanes: Maryland: Positive historical dynamics but Covid-19 uncertainty
    09 Sep 2020

    Maryland Department of Transportation published its Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the I-495 and I-270 in June and award of the P3 is expected in early summer 2021. Historical traffic dynamics for the project (congestion, population and employment growth) appear solid but since Covid-19 in April, Transurban’s Washington I-95 and I-495 traffic and prices have continued to underperform our lowered expectations and Ferrovial’s Texas ML.s.
  • Ferrovial: Positive launch of LBJ refinancing ahead of expectations
    01 Sep 2020

    LBJ plans to refinance its PAB debt in early Sept, having published a prospectus, ahead of our delayed expectations in 2021 due to Covid-19. Given strong recovering forecast FCF and a resilient financial structure, we expect a successful reduction in interest costs.
  • Atlas Arteria: H1: Recovering APRR traffic and FCF, TP up to A$7.8
    01 Sep 2020

    ALX has reported H1 proportional EBITDA of A$400m, -30.2% LFL, 29% above Insight. Although we raise our traffic for APRR, we reduce for Dulles. We raise our TP from A$7.6 to A$7.8 due to higher APRR valuation part offset by a lower Dulles valuation. 
  • Eiffage: H1: Recovering APRR traffic and FCF, TP up to €142
    29 Aug 2020

    Eiffage has reported H1 2020 EBIT of €262m, -68.7% YoY, €65m above Insight. We raise EBIT, EPS and DPS, with lower near term EBIT in Construction more than offset by higher EBIT in Concessions (mainly APRR margins) and Energy. We raise our TP 4% to €142.
  • Beijing CIA: H1: Reducing traffic, EBITDA and TP to HK$11.4
    28 Aug 2020

    BCIA has reported H1 20 EBITDA of -¥162m, (-106% YoY), ¥183m below Insight. We reduce our EBITDA due to lower near-term traffic and assumed discounts to duty free MAG.s. We reduce our TP -7% to HK$11.4 but our upside remains attractive at 114%.
  • Flughafen Zurich: H1: Reducing traffic but raising EBITDA and TP to CHF228
    25 Aug 2020

    FHZ has reported H1 EBITDA (clean ex. Noise) of CHF103m, -65% YoY, CHF50m above Insight. We reduce traffic (recovery of 19 levels in 24E) but raise EBITDA and our TP to CHF228 from including a new Allowed Reg. Return of 5.0% (140bps above Insight) in 2021-25E.
  • Auckland IA: Reducing traffic and EBITDA, d/g to SELL on below sector upside
    24 Aug 2020

    AIA has reported FY to June 20 EBITDA (ex. FV adj.) of NZ$260.4m, -53% YOY, in line with Insight ex. one-offs. We reduce traffic and EBITDA and delay recovery of FY19 pax one year to FY25E. Our TP falls -8% to NZ$10.0 and we downgrade our rating from BUY to SELL due to higher relative valuation upside in our global infrastructure universe of 70%.
  • CCR: H1: Raising Toll roads, reducing Urban mobility, TP R$9.7
    18 Aug 2020

    CCR has reported H1 2020 adj. EBITDA of R$2,320.5m, -16% YOY (-6.3% LFL), 3% below Insight. We consider the results mildly disappointing. We raise Toll road traffic but lower Urban mobility traffic. We reduce group EBITDA, DPS and our TP to R$9.7.
  • Transurban: FY20: Reducing traffic, DPS and TP to A$14.2
    16 Aug 2020

    TCL has reported FY to June 2020 proportional EBITDA (ex. significant items) of A$1,888m, -6.4% YOY, in line with Insight. We reduce traffic and EBITDA in Australia and N. America, with lost traffic not recovered until 6/23E. We reduce our TP slightly to A$14.2 and DPS as we expect TCL to continue to not distribute capital releases but new projects to pick up.
  • Sydney: H1: Equity raising prepares for prolonged Covid-19 recovery
    13 Aug 2020

    We reduce our forecasts to only minimal traffic and EBITDA in 20E due to govt Covid-19 restrictions, with traffic of 19 recovered later in 26E and recalibrate down retail MAG.s in addition to abatements. Our TP pre-equity raise falls A$2.1 to A$12.2 and post-equity to A$11.0. SYD Airport will be lower levered, is the best run airport in our universe and operates to 2097.

Why Insight? 

We understand our clients needs, produce research product to achieve them, do what we say we will do, have fun and play to win. 

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Our approach

A niche non traditional sector requires a specialist solution. We concentrate on thoughtful, thorough, insightful analysis not maintenance research and challenge market views. 

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